Stenos Signals

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Steno Signals #21 – 3 reasons why everyone, Zuckerberg, me, and their dogs turn into idiots when rates are 0%
In my base-case, we are going to see a double-top inflation picture, but I sincerely hope that we don’t resummon our inner financial illiterates, if…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
25
Inflation watch #1: 8 charts on slowing inflation and why it’s not a buy signal
US CPI printed at 7.1% - smack dab at our forecast - but it is not necessarily a signal to buy risk assets. Margins increased when inflation was hot…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
12
Steno Signals #20 - NO soft landing unless central banks admit to disinflation
It is hard to find a single inflation indicator not rolling over, but there is ONE and that will be tricky to handle for the Fed. Meanwhile, European…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
12
Steno Signals #80 - Stealth QE arriving IN SIZE in Q1
Happy New Year! Powell and Yellen will deliver a sizable “stealth QE” New Years gift to all of us, but mostly to banks. The liquidity addition will…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
USD Liquidity Watch: Stealth QE out of the 2024 gates?
USD liquidity is likely to come flying out the gates of 2024 due to a series of technicalities. We have gone from QE, to QT, to QB to QE-light. Position…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
Steno Signals #26 - Stealth QE through the back door?
Is it really a possible scenario that the Fed will do stealth-QE by summer 2023? And are equities still a sell based on USD liquidity plumbing? Get the…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
10
EUR Inflation - The ECB forecast is OFF by >1.5%-points for Q1
The early evidence from Germany, Spain and Portugal suggests that we will get another (material) dovish surprise from EUR inflation this month. The ECB…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
Real Estate Watch - The equity market crisis to spread to Real Estate
The biggest interest rate shock in several decades ought to challenge the Real Estate outlook. Since housing famously is the business cycle, what is the…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
12
Steno Signals #16 – A (semi)-permanent energy GDP-shock in Europe?
Developments through 2022 have exposed the interlink between macro, geopolitics and markets. We see a risk of a (semi)permanent European GDP-shock due…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
10
USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury SELL-OFF due to increasing bank reserves?
The liquidity conditions will likely worsen substantially in US Treasury markets, and it is now a topic that is being addressed continuously by Fed…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
Stenos Signals #13 - No, Germany is probably not running out of gas
The media is full of doom and gloom around Europe, and even though the situation is admittedly bad, I tend to think that the likely outcome is less bad…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
11
Steno Signals #81 - Fed member promises that QT is effectively already over
The Fed has abandoned the strategy of bringing bank reserves (substantially) down, which effectively means that QT is over. This happens amidst rising…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
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