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June 2025

Steno Signals #203 – Could Trump's policy mix weaken the USD by another 20%?
Trump’s wins on Canada’s digital tax and the SLR relief show he’s gaining traction. Markets still underprice a U.S. shift toward Abenomics-style policy.
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AndreasStenoLarsen
Steno Signals #202 – Peak WW3 Fears Return!
Peak Panic, Missed Signals: Why Iran won’t shut Hormuz—and why copper, not crude, is the real trade right now.
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AndreasStenoLarsen
Flash Update: Trump Seeks an Off-Ramp as Peak Fear Hits
Trump’s strike on Iran risks escalating tensions, but with both sides seeking an off-ramp, markets may be vastly overpricing the threat of a broader…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
Steno Signals #201 - The Mullahs Are Toast - re-inflation is back!
It seems Israel is going all-in on a regime shift—and they might actually get it. While this leaves the region facing an uncertain scenario, we struggle…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
Steno Signals #200 - The Liquidity Boom That Nobody Expects
While markets broadly agree that some sort of re-acceleration in inflation will happen over the summer, the ongoing liquidity boom has gone under the…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
Steno Signals – “Russia’s Pearl Harbor” Is USD-Negative
The situation in Ukraine and Russia demands attention, and it's likely that Trump will need to shake things up to force a resolution. This may include…
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AndreasStenoLarsen

May 2025

Steno Signals #198 – A 20–25% Weaker USD May Solve All Trump’s Problems
The move in the USD is probably only getting started and a continuation of the trend aligns well with Trump's strategic initiatives on all fronts. The…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
Steno Signals #197 – The Mood(y)’s is bad in the Fiat
After the third major rating house downgraded the US on Friday, the long end of the curve is flying into uncharted territory. The mood is weak in the…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
Steno Signals #196 - What’s next for inflation given the US/China pause?
With all reciprocal tariffs now “paused” at lower levels, the next major battleground is inflation. Will inflation move lower, and will that allow for a…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
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Steno Signals #195 – Wait, what? Did China just start buying Treasuries again?
Large parts of the Mar’o’Lago Accord are actually progressing according to plan, despite poor implementation and widespread global outrage. China is now…
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AndreasStenoLarsen
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