The media is full of doom and gloom around Europe, and even though the situation is admittedly bad, I tend to think that the likely outcome is less bad than feared by many. Here is why!
Thank you Andreas! Readers of financial news and research don’t need the “world is ending” on repeat. We need a range of outcomes and the data that supports these possibilities. Who would have known that you could show good data and bad data at the same time? I feel bad for the subscribers to macro commentators spelling disaster into infinity. I have a feeling they won’t know what hit ‘em when things turn. The same story in every financial crisis…they actually end.
Good read Andreas and I can confirm most of your analysis from Germany as well. Moving forward I expect this fear in Europe will fade and so will natural gas, coal and electricity prices priced over here in euro. The current price levels are astronomically high and not justified by the fundamental data. A clear divergence is visible by now.
Good points made here. Fear gets views and parabolic moves up always revert. Winter will be bad for sure, but maybe not apocalypse?
Germany not freezing... Fintwit and ZeroEdge don't like!
Thank you Andreas! Readers of financial news and research don’t need the “world is ending” on repeat. We need a range of outcomes and the data that supports these possibilities. Who would have known that you could show good data and bad data at the same time? I feel bad for the subscribers to macro commentators spelling disaster into infinity. I have a feeling they won’t know what hit ‘em when things turn. The same story in every financial crisis…they actually end.
Good read Andreas and I can confirm most of your analysis from Germany as well. Moving forward I expect this fear in Europe will fade and so will natural gas, coal and electricity prices priced over here in euro. The current price levels are astronomically high and not justified by the fundamental data. A clear divergence is visible by now.
question plz Andreas. The consumption numbers are from previous years? Are they sensitive to economic growth?
Because industry is reportedly already consuming less due to the manufacturing slowdown.
Interested to read Norway comments yesterday that they can replace russian supply into Europe for ten years at least
Germany needs more gas this winter, since the energy production is more reliant on gas.
Obviously in April Germany completely ceases to need Gas because reasons. Mid scenario has it with nothing there but cool, I guess.
Also assumption that while reserve empties prices doesn't multiply.
Hmm.
Copium
Andreas, simple /elegant analysis on gas. I am in trouble with fig3 though. What is orange line pls ?
It is the current inflation in % in Gas/Electricity as measured in the Consumer Price Index - the dark blue is a model