Energy has been THE performer of 2022, but is there any energy left in the trade as commodity markets are turning bearish? We look at price action and fundamentals underlying the consensus trade #1
Wonderful article. Your views on energy are always a very enjoyable reading. What does TTF Dutch Natural Gas contract have that makes it special for a long trade?
For those without a Bloomberg terminal, do you have any suggestions on how to calculate beta between two sides of a pair trade (e.g. short energy basket, long natural gas)? Any indices you like for those, per chance?
Click on All and see the drop in drilling activity in NA. The industry is very good at what they do but they have to drill to keep up with depletion. I am not sure if depletion will fill Lars's gap. WTI vs XLE
Canada has minimal LNG exports at this time but increasing exports via pipeline to USA. Therefore some Canadian NG price pressure but not much at this time. That's good for me in W. Canada at -25C some days! Yikes!
Great summary as usual. Thanks!
Great insightful read as usual. Thanks
What are your thoughts on the US oil reserve that's been drawing down for the past 12 months? Will the refilling be upward price catalyst?
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
Chart 6 is not on Positioning. A Bug ?!
Should be updated now
Thanks for the great post. Greeting from Canada.
Risky short considering the historically-high negative carry of energy stocks.
Great summary! The France nuclear issue is really important and often glossed over.
Hi Andreas,
Wonderful article. Your views on energy are always a very enjoyable reading. What does TTF Dutch Natural Gas contract have that makes it special for a long trade?
Thank you very much
Best regards
Javier
Great write-up Andreas.
For those without a Bloomberg terminal, do you have any suggestions on how to calculate beta between two sides of a pair trade (e.g. short energy basket, long natural gas)? Any indices you like for those, per chance?
https://boereport.com/us-rig-count/
https://boereport.com/caodc-rig-count/
Click on All and see the drop in drilling activity in NA. The industry is very good at what they do but they have to drill to keep up with depletion. I am not sure if depletion will fill Lars's gap. WTI vs XLE
Canada has minimal LNG exports at this time but increasing exports via pipeline to USA. Therefore some Canadian NG price pressure but not much at this time. That's good for me in W. Canada at -25C some days! Yikes!
Thanks for this report.