The consumer is rebounding fast due to several inflation-linked technicalities in January. Here are three charts showing why consumption will rebound markedly in H1-2023.
Given consumption's weight in GDP, would this support a soft- or no-landing scenario in your view? If we avoid recession, then historical precedent would suggest that stocks bottomed last year.
At the same time, several things are lining up to support a rally in equities at least over the near-term.
In my view - based on no evidence other than daily incoming data provided by tradingeconomics.com - you Macro boys have lost the plot. A recession is further away because governments are handing around money to poor people like it's going out of fashion - not because they have a propensity to spend but because they damn well have to on things like energy (look at the ridiculous position in the UK which I assume is pretty similar elsewhere).
I see Charlie Bilello went pretty full-on bearish in his latest blog post and he has been equivocating for months.
Given consumption's weight in GDP, would this support a soft- or no-landing scenario in your view? If we avoid recession, then historical precedent would suggest that stocks bottomed last year.
At the same time, several things are lining up to support a rally in equities at least over the near-term.
In my view - based on no evidence other than daily incoming data provided by tradingeconomics.com - you Macro boys have lost the plot. A recession is further away because governments are handing around money to poor people like it's going out of fashion - not because they have a propensity to spend but because they damn well have to on things like energy (look at the ridiculous position in the UK which I assume is pretty similar elsewhere).
I see Charlie Bilello went pretty full-on bearish in his latest blog post and he has been equivocating for months.