US inflation is likely to show further material signs of deceleration next week, which is of importance to both rates, FX and equity markets. Here is why!
Your breezy, sweeping macro-predictions are always well presented as usual here. Shipping container rates have indeed plummeted in the last months. However, Triple AAA this morning is reporting that regular gasoline price in the USA has increased from $3.272 to $3.419 in the last month. Ditto for all other gasoline categories except for the all important retail diesel price which has decreased 5 cents from one month ago, but still remains quite high of course from its retail price of $4.62 a year ago - alas, not much "deacceleration" there. And the CPI revision that revised inflation up not only for December, but also for the previous 2 months? Returning to your sweeping macro-confidence that inflation will inevitably deaccelerate, have you forgotten that there is a rapidly escalating war to your east that could easily reignite a new inflation spike in a 'New York minute'? Perhaps you are watching too much western legacy media which is serially lying about the war's growing threat of open direct hostilities between NATO military forces and Russia and therefore the growing possibility of nuclear war breaking out to not only the global economy, but to all human life on earth? Also, it bears mentioning the unknown impacts that will soon emerge from Russia's unfolding incremental offensive which is now accelerating towards its stated goal of liberating Donetsk & Luhansk Republics from Ukraine that is in sight of being achieved now after Bakmut soon falls, and after, as it appears more and more likely with each passing day, that the Ukrainian military will be forced into a wholesale retreat from its entire front line in Donetsk lest it be completely encircled, overrun and destroyed like Hitler's Panzer tank divisions were at the Battle of Stalingrad. What if the Ukrainian military completely collapses and NATO troops enter into direct combat with Russia in the next months? What will be the impact on the price of oil, the dollar and financial markets? Alas, I hope you have the analytical integrity to rethink and reassess your sweeping inevitable deaccelerating inflation thesis in light of the growing uncertain geopolitical reality now unfolding that has already combined to demonstrate the probability of continuing stickiness of inflation as the revised CPI figures have just revealed because we are moving forward into a period of unprecedented growing geopolitical and therefore global economic uncertainty. Pro tip: Read less Bloomberg and instead juxtapose with a few independent analysts like Dr. Jack Rasmus on economics or Alexander Mercouris on Youtube for better objective analysis of the US empire's proxy war against Russia using Ukraine as its bait. Bloomberg's morning host couldn't even allow Mr. Sachs to state the obvious fact to all who are not indoctrinated with one-sided western State Department narratives that the US blew up the Nord Stream pipelines - an act of war against Germany - by an "ally". Too many analysts on various platforms that you associate with are completely unaware on how limited their understanding of geopolitical realities. My hope for you is you might seek out new views outside of the truly narrow spectrum of western economic and political analysis that are available on western media platforms and channels. And I haven't even mentioned China yet. Well, I will leave that for another time but perhaps you should watch some Chinese state media available on You Tube. It's far more objective in its coverage of the West than NPR or Voice of America is in its coverage of China which is truly State Department stenography.
Andreas and his Macro friends have (in my humble) got it wrong - inflation has been getting stickier for a while.
No doubt, if Andreas can be bothered to read this comment (I have given him the same answers on Twitter) he will ignore or repeat the same answer that his recent research proved right which is as we all know history.
Oh yes revisions, up - Atlanta Fed data, up, incoming daily data from around the world, up
What is your take on the CPI revisions that were announced yesterday? Appreciate all you share. 🙏🏼
Your breezy, sweeping macro-predictions are always well presented as usual here. Shipping container rates have indeed plummeted in the last months. However, Triple AAA this morning is reporting that regular gasoline price in the USA has increased from $3.272 to $3.419 in the last month. Ditto for all other gasoline categories except for the all important retail diesel price which has decreased 5 cents from one month ago, but still remains quite high of course from its retail price of $4.62 a year ago - alas, not much "deacceleration" there. And the CPI revision that revised inflation up not only for December, but also for the previous 2 months? Returning to your sweeping macro-confidence that inflation will inevitably deaccelerate, have you forgotten that there is a rapidly escalating war to your east that could easily reignite a new inflation spike in a 'New York minute'? Perhaps you are watching too much western legacy media which is serially lying about the war's growing threat of open direct hostilities between NATO military forces and Russia and therefore the growing possibility of nuclear war breaking out to not only the global economy, but to all human life on earth? Also, it bears mentioning the unknown impacts that will soon emerge from Russia's unfolding incremental offensive which is now accelerating towards its stated goal of liberating Donetsk & Luhansk Republics from Ukraine that is in sight of being achieved now after Bakmut soon falls, and after, as it appears more and more likely with each passing day, that the Ukrainian military will be forced into a wholesale retreat from its entire front line in Donetsk lest it be completely encircled, overrun and destroyed like Hitler's Panzer tank divisions were at the Battle of Stalingrad. What if the Ukrainian military completely collapses and NATO troops enter into direct combat with Russia in the next months? What will be the impact on the price of oil, the dollar and financial markets? Alas, I hope you have the analytical integrity to rethink and reassess your sweeping inevitable deaccelerating inflation thesis in light of the growing uncertain geopolitical reality now unfolding that has already combined to demonstrate the probability of continuing stickiness of inflation as the revised CPI figures have just revealed because we are moving forward into a period of unprecedented growing geopolitical and therefore global economic uncertainty. Pro tip: Read less Bloomberg and instead juxtapose with a few independent analysts like Dr. Jack Rasmus on economics or Alexander Mercouris on Youtube for better objective analysis of the US empire's proxy war against Russia using Ukraine as its bait. Bloomberg's morning host couldn't even allow Mr. Sachs to state the obvious fact to all who are not indoctrinated with one-sided western State Department narratives that the US blew up the Nord Stream pipelines - an act of war against Germany - by an "ally". Too many analysts on various platforms that you associate with are completely unaware on how limited their understanding of geopolitical realities. My hope for you is you might seek out new views outside of the truly narrow spectrum of western economic and political analysis that are available on western media platforms and channels. And I haven't even mentioned China yet. Well, I will leave that for another time but perhaps you should watch some Chinese state media available on You Tube. It's far more objective in its coverage of the West than NPR or Voice of America is in its coverage of China which is truly State Department stenography.
Andreas and his Macro friends have (in my humble) got it wrong - inflation has been getting stickier for a while.
No doubt, if Andreas can be bothered to read this comment (I have given him the same answers on Twitter) he will ignore or repeat the same answer that his recent research proved right which is as we all know history.
Oh yes revisions, up - Atlanta Fed data, up, incoming daily data from around the world, up