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Thanks for the analysis. I also don´t think that Russia currently is a match for the EU/NATO in a direct confrontation ground war, but is that status changing with all the new military technologies introduced in Russia?

I´m curious what you make of Russia's newly developed and delivered strategic weapons, like the satellite weapon and the Belgorod?

If you combine three facts, you can see that the new Satellite weapon could be used for very bad burnt soil tactic 1) satellite weapon successfully hits Russian satellite and creates a debris 2) the problem of self accelerating destruction of satellites due to debris 3) that the agency observing space debris was almost overwhelmed by the debris from the old Russian satellite that was targeted by the new weapon.

A Belgorod Submarine is a powerful and with it's Poseidon torpedo it´s also a strategic weapon.

Regarding more conventional forces, I´m under the impression that Russia has very little of their relatively newly developed Armata tank, hypersonic missiles, Merkuriy littoral combat ship and Sukhoi-57. But if they somehow manage to change their old gear faster than EU does, then this could maybe alter the power balance in Russias favor?

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