Forget all about the Saudi-Iran Cold War or the Palestinian question. The real agenda of the Middle East is the rise of the Turkic countries and the ascent of Turkey to Great Power status
Please have some research about inflation, wealth destruction among people, unlimited immigration and the massive manipulation of markets by goverment hand in Turkey. Net reserves are deeply negative and huge budget deficit is on the way before elections. The seculer system is about to be diminished. TRY is not convertible anymore and the majority of investments are coming from money loundering from russia and arabic region. The ruling goverment is a success story only if someone is willing to divide the country. US and Russia needs Turkish army to attack middle east for keeping the oil prices elevated. In this case europen and chinese economies will suffer and not a thread for US anymore. You can invest in Turkish stock market but beware of rule of law has been broken long before.
Yes, with inflation at 80%/yr I don't think showing the stock index in local currency. Note that they are lowering interest rates in an "unorthodox" attempt at controlling it. Short term more disruption is likely, although a rise from a low base is likely over the long term.
Massively overly bullish on Turkey. They rely entirely on western military equipment, technology and trade. In order for Turkey to be a great power they would need to secure independent supply lines for figher jets, tanks, artillery etc. not just drones.
Agree with the long-term outlook on Turkey/Turkic rise, especially including demographic trends, but hard to reconcile with the massive debasement of the Lira. Why is the currency of a rising power severely inflating? Doesn't that massively disrupt economic activity and stunt real growth? What will reverse that trend?
Excellent article nonetheless, to be clear! Have enjoyed your geopolitical angles.
Azerbaijan has way bigger, modern and more trained army than Armenia. Defeat was imminent with or without Turkish help. Armenia gambled prior to war and strongly relied on the help of Russia and did their best to drag Russia in the war, but failed badly.
Please have some research about inflation, wealth destruction among people, unlimited immigration and the massive manipulation of markets by goverment hand in Turkey. Net reserves are deeply negative and huge budget deficit is on the way before elections. The seculer system is about to be diminished. TRY is not convertible anymore and the majority of investments are coming from money loundering from russia and arabic region. The ruling goverment is a success story only if someone is willing to divide the country. US and Russia needs Turkish army to attack middle east for keeping the oil prices elevated. In this case europen and chinese economies will suffer and not a thread for US anymore. You can invest in Turkish stock market but beware of rule of law has been broken long before.
Yes, with inflation at 80%/yr I don't think showing the stock index in local currency. Note that they are lowering interest rates in an "unorthodox" attempt at controlling it. Short term more disruption is likely, although a rise from a low base is likely over the long term.
Massively overly bullish on Turkey. They rely entirely on western military equipment, technology and trade. In order for Turkey to be a great power they would need to secure independent supply lines for figher jets, tanks, artillery etc. not just drones.
The book 'The Next Hundred Years' has interesting observations on the likely rise of Turkey...and Poland.
Excellent piece. Fascinating stuff with this power shift.
Agree with the long-term outlook on Turkey/Turkic rise, especially including demographic trends, but hard to reconcile with the massive debasement of the Lira. Why is the currency of a rising power severely inflating? Doesn't that massively disrupt economic activity and stunt real growth? What will reverse that trend?
Excellent article nonetheless, to be clear! Have enjoyed your geopolitical angles.
FYI - The Kyrgyz are Turkic, the Tajiks are a Persian/Iranian people.
Azerbaijan has way bigger, modern and more trained army than Armenia. Defeat was imminent with or without Turkish help. Armenia gambled prior to war and strongly relied on the help of Russia and did their best to drag Russia in the war, but failed badly.
P.S. Please spell country names correctly.