The Great Game #7 - 2023 Crystal Ball

Wow, what a year it has been in geopolitics. Crisis after crisis and an entirely new geopolitical structure in the making. Now we turn our eyes to 2023 and give you our top geopolitical predictions!

Wow, what a year it has been in geopolitics. Crisis after crisis and an entirely new geopolitical structure in the making. Now we turn our eyes forward and give you our top geopolitical predictions for 2023! Let’s start with a rival set of predictions by none other than former Russian President Medvedev. Was he coming out of a two-day bender when he wrote this thread?

Dmitry Medvedev @MedvedevRussiaE

On the New Year’s Eve, everybody’s into making predictions Many come up with futuristic hypotheses, as if competing to single out the wildest, and even the most absurd ones. Here’s our humble contribution. What can happen in 2023:

Anyway, let’s get on with it!

#1 - Stalemate on the Dniepr

The War in Ukraine will continue, but the front will freeze. Both sides will attempt offensives in the winter (January + February) and again in the summer (June-September), but neither will be able to make gains on a strategic level. Talks around a Minsk-style ceasefire agreement will be held but without much luck despite pressure from the EU and China.

#2 - Removal of the Gas Cap

Inevitably, the new European price cap on natural gas will be overturned and removed. Either because the cap is meaningless due to low prices or because it actually works and Europe found out that they prohibited themselves from importing the gas they so desperately need for the Winter.

#3 - Indian Shipping Boom

With India rejecting the Western price cap and restrictions on Russian oil, we will see an increased demand for residual fleet capacity around the world - especially in Asia, where countries will be forced to increase their own merchant fleet capacity in order to import Russian resources. We discussed this in earlier posts, but in short, I expect Asian ship manufacturing to enter a new golden age in 2023 as a result of the Western-Russian split.

#4 - Taksim Part Two

2023 is looking a bit light on the election front - especially compared to the mouthwatering 2024 calendar. My main focus will be on Turkey and the summer sandwich of Presidential and Parliamentary elections. The main opposition party (CHP) has not decided on a candidate to challenge the almighty Erdogan. While polls look quite favorable for the CHP due to the crushing inflation, I predict Erdogan to win a controversial election victory followed by protests and trouble in, especially, Istanbul. Perhaps we will see an attempt at a new “Square Revolution” on the famous Taksim Square.

#5 - Taiwan Detente

Read my lips - China will annex Taiwan before 2049. But right now, China has its hands full with the Covid reopening as well as managing the outfall from the increasingly annoying Russian war in Ukraine. And while the provocations and military build-up targeting Taiwan will definitely continue, 2023 is not the year to engage in a complex and costly military operation across the strait.

#6 - Republican Free-For-All

2023 will mark the build-up to the 2024 US Presidential Elections. Who will face who? If we look at the polls, only two tested matchups look positive for the Republican side - Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump and Joe Biden vs “Generic Republican”. So 2023 will be another year of the Democrats trying to get rid of Kamala and the Republicans trying to get that legendary “Generic” guy to actually run! I predict the Republican frontrunners in 12 months' time will be Trump, DeSantis, Sununu and Abbott.

#7 Will the next TikTok be European?

However technologically advanced, Europe is lagging behind on digitization and the EU is channeling huge amounts of capital into broadband access, digital skills, entrepreneurship and most importantly developing a robust and innovative “digital single market”. This may seem like another Brussels pet project, but the agenda is also extremely important in German domestic politics and plays into the general wish of the EU to limit the influence of Chinese manufacturers like Huawei. Expect increased and continued investments in European digital infrastructure through European and U.S. suppliers.

So - there you have it! Don’t hold back from roasting us whenever things go in an entirely different direction.

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