The big recession scam of 2022?
Were we already in recession in 2022? The Bureau of Labor Statistics now contradicts its very own non-farm-payrolls data in the new Business Employment Dynamics Summary.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics just released the Business Employment Dynamics Summary from Q2-2022 and it points to NEGATIVE job-growth last year. Is the job market already MUCH weaker than anticipated in the US, and were we already in recession in 2022?
On one hand, the non-farm-payrolls report continued to show increasing employment through Q2-Q4 in 2022, while the househould survey hinted of flatlining employment at best and on the other hand the BLS just revealed that the net job gains of Q2-2022 were -287k (Press release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.nr0.htm)
Were we already in a recession in 2022?
This question could be of major relevance to this years asset performance, if it indeed was the case that 2022 was a recession.
The BLS has just released the Business Employment Dynamics Summary (with actual data), which hints of net job losses in Q2-2022, when the NFP hinted of almost 1 million added jobs. These two measures are intended to measure the exact same thing.
Employment growth or the lack thereof in the US. BLS now contradicts itself. The NFP tells you that H1-2022 was not a recession, while the just released BED tells you that 2022 was full of job losses. What to trust? Hmmmmmmmmmmm……….
Chart 1. NFP vs. BED .. Hmmmm…
So which one of the labor market statistics should we trust the most?
I cannot give you all the answers for free out of respect for my paying subscribers. If you want to understand the pros/cons of concluding that the recession already arrived 9 months ago, you need to sign up on www.stenoresearch.com/subscribe/ .. You can get 20% off until Jan 31st with the discount code “substack20”
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