A lot of investors are rightfully scared that Russia is about to invade Ukraine. It almost never pays to bet on geopolitical turbulence and the current situation may prove to be a decent opportunity.
When to buy and when to sell is always something with one's time horizon. If you are long-term investor, then I don't think it is a good strategy to buy growth stocks now.
The US has a debt of 122% relative to GDP, I could well imagine that they are happy with high inflation for some time, just until the debt relative to GDP is at a manageable level - even if it happens at the expense of some growth.
I think the focus has shifted from the few rich to the many poor ...
Hi, the red line in the last chart assumes that the peak in the participation rate is 60%. We are at 62.2 now, so I don't quite understand that statement. Can you pls help elaborate?
Interesting angle. Wonder what timeframe you are looking at for long 10 bonds - my guess 3 to 6 months. Reading lately that China has turned a new leaf and is working on growing its service and internal market rather than the traditional export led - you seem to think they are stimulating to grow exports. Perhaps you mean China will bail out real estate and tech. In the era of rising US rates cant see EM go far either. thanks Andreas, good article
Thanks for highlighting a number of important points. FWIW I'm absolutely terrified of the scale of the Chinese real estate bubble and not sure its fixable without a big slowdown. Adjust Chinese real estate to the same price/income ratio as US, but to compare apples to apples, factor in the fact that apartments only last half as long in China as in the US, and the fact that land in China reverts to the state after 70 years. The resulting numbers scare the crap out of me.
Thanks for sharing Andreas! I would be careful with your thesis on growth stocks rebounding in Q2. I agree that the second derivative of inflation is likely to decelerate meaningfully in Q2-Q3 this year but so will growth rates however and this may have an effect on whichever stocks display the statistical behavior we refer to as "growth"
Excelent piece Andreas. And also just to add, even if the Russians don’t get NS2 approved, they still get high prices for gas due to the geopolitical situation dragging on. So it’s Win-Win. Look at todays oil deal with the Chinese.. all the best and thank you.
When to buy and when to sell is always something with one's time horizon. If you are long-term investor, then I don't think it is a good strategy to buy growth stocks now.
The US has a debt of 122% relative to GDP, I could well imagine that they are happy with high inflation for some time, just until the debt relative to GDP is at a manageable level - even if it happens at the expense of some growth.
I think the focus has shifted from the few rich to the many poor ...
Hi, the red line in the last chart assumes that the peak in the participation rate is 60%. We are at 62.2 now, so I don't quite understand that statement. Can you pls help elaborate?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
Best,
Jacob
Interesting angle. Wonder what timeframe you are looking at for long 10 bonds - my guess 3 to 6 months. Reading lately that China has turned a new leaf and is working on growing its service and internal market rather than the traditional export led - you seem to think they are stimulating to grow exports. Perhaps you mean China will bail out real estate and tech. In the era of rising US rates cant see EM go far either. thanks Andreas, good article
Thanks for highlighting a number of important points. FWIW I'm absolutely terrified of the scale of the Chinese real estate bubble and not sure its fixable without a big slowdown. Adjust Chinese real estate to the same price/income ratio as US, but to compare apples to apples, factor in the fact that apartments only last half as long in China as in the US, and the fact that land in China reverts to the state after 70 years. The resulting numbers scare the crap out of me.
Thanks for sharing Andreas! I would be careful with your thesis on growth stocks rebounding in Q2. I agree that the second derivative of inflation is likely to decelerate meaningfully in Q2-Q3 this year but so will growth rates however and this may have an effect on whichever stocks display the statistical behavior we refer to as "growth"
Excelent piece Andreas. And also just to add, even if the Russians don’t get NS2 approved, they still get high prices for gas due to the geopolitical situation dragging on. So it’s Win-Win. Look at todays oil deal with the Chinese.. all the best and thank you.
Make sense, thanks :)
Tack
Thank you for insights Andreas and looking forward to your next RV interview! 👏👏👏👏👏
Thank you Andreas
Excellent work.
Great read! Always a great impartial view!