Discussion about this post

User's avatar
AndreasStenoLarsen's avatar

Please feel free to leave questions, comments and feedback here. Hope you all enjoyed it!

Expand full comment
Javier SMtz's avatar

Hi Steno,

Thank you very much for writing this post. There are two ideas I don't really get:

- "The price of natural gas in Rotterdam can increase to 500€ (from current 92€) and still ultimately lead to a smaller inflationary impact (in YoY terms) compared to today. " I cannot see how a +400% increase in energy prices can have small inflationary impact. Actually, one of the reasons why I think inflation will be temporary in the US but will stay in the EU for longer is that in Europe energy prices have gone through the roof, and this has come here to stay. Trends in energy prices ripple in the economy across the board. The same logic I think applies to the analysis and the relations on Freight rates and inflation, though the relation is not that stronger.

- "A weak labour market supply will force digitization to re-accelerate over the medium-term". Assuming this happens this way, the trend would be self-reinforcing: less labour supply will lead to even less labour supply due to substitution of humans brought by more digitization. People leaving the workforce also want to have food in their plate. That leads to more government-sponsored programs, subsidies, aids, etc. and all of that comes with more inflationary pressure.

Could you please explain more on the above? It would be very appreciated.

Thank you very much indeed.

Best regards

Javier

Expand full comment
14 more comments...

No posts