Steno Signals #65 - The 4 things that worries me the most in global macro right now

I am getting increasingly concerned about (at least) four things in the current global macro setup, which leaves prudent risk management in investing more relevant than usual.

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.

My apologies for the slightly late release, but I am excused by being locked down for the fourth or fifth time this summer due to the plethora of Marathons in Copenhagen.

Enough moaning!

Let’s get to the macro landscape, which is starting to worry me on at least a couple of parameters. Remember that you can always track our portfolio LIVE here.

I have four major worries around the current macro setup:

1) The long consensus in bond positioning is worrisome paired with rising energy prices

2) The lack of reliability of recession forecasts and the relationship to Manufacturing

3) Germany being a nation-wide Nokia case despite falling input prices

4) Refi-risks in global C(RE) amidst higher for longer risks

Let’s dig into them one by one.