Steno Signals #55 – Why surveys struggle to get anything right in this environment
Expectations are real, while the reality is nominal! Soft data keeps getting the reality wrong, which is probably a phenomenon that relates to the spread between nominal- and real figures. Why?
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Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial.
I have a lot on my mind this week, so bear with me through this chart-mania. I promise you that it will be highly thought-provoking, contrarian and slightly annoying as per usual. That is why we are here, isn’t it?
Before we get to why surveys will continue to get everything wrong until inflation has normalized, I wanted to highlight an interesting finding from our tons of weird but systematic data studies.
The number of daily stories on “AI” has started to wane. Is the hype fading? It looks like it, but we will keep you posted as we remain FOMO-long ourselves. If the number of stories keeps decelerating, expect fewer taxi drivers in the trade soon.
Chart of the week: Is the AI hype about to wane?
The hype in Energy is definitely over… and the current oil market situation serves as a real-life game theoretical laboratory, where speculators strategically aim to push OPEC into non-compliance with production agreements, creating a complex environment for market participants and policymakers alike.
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