Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams)

What a weekend in Trump-land, set against a macroeconomic environment that, as far as I can tell, looks more like 2021 than 2017. If we cut through the noise, it seems we’re still early in the cycle.

Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.

It’s been an incredibly eventful weekend in Trump-land, and those who expected him to save all the fireworks for the inauguration speech have already been left behind.

To recap, Trump has either officially or via leaks/sources hinted at the following:

1. The launch of the official meme-Trump-coin, which has gone absolutely through the roof, taking SOL to new highs alongside it. This comes just hours after Gary Gensler left office and while Trump was hosting a New Year’s gala for the—pardon me—slightly more utility-focused crypto audience. What a timing. Honestly, I have mixed feelings about it, but more on that later.

2. A possible trip to China to deal with Xi Jinping, the TikTok question, and trade. At the same time, he has hinted at allowing continued Chinese ownership of TikTok in the U.S., which is probably “the carrot” in negotiations with Xi. For someone who presents himself as a China hawk, this doesn’t look very hawkish. Let’s see what next week brings.

Tweet of the week: From hawk to dove on China in a matter of days?

I think it is worthwhile to cut through all the noise from the Trump administration and focus on the fact that the business cycle is showing signs of rapid acceleration, as evidenced by both surveys and our real-time observations of the economy. This is also why I believe the current environment will resemble 2021 more than 2017. I will elaborate on the various parameters behind this thesis below.

Chart of the week: The business cycle is suddenly through the roof again!