Oil Watch: Was the oil sell-off based on a wrong outlier?
I have basically spent most of the day (outside of meetings) assessing the EIA report from yesterday and the more I look, the more I find the plot to be thickening. Could the EIA report be an outlier?
Good Evening from Europe!
The EIA report moved oil markets markedly yesterday and the sell-off has continued today. If the EIA report is indeed a true reflection of the slide in the retail gasoline demand, it may shave off >1mn barrels a day in global demand for oil.
The BIG issue for the EIA report is that it is 100% out of sync with high frequent transportation data, so what do we make of it here?
Let’s have a look at the data.
Our full study on the EIA report and the potential flaws was released here → https://stenoresearch.com/watch-series/oil-watch-the-eia-plot-thickens/
Get 30% off your subscription by using “macro30” as your coupon code when subscribing to the full package from Steno Research.
Chart 1: The EIA report is out of sync with actual traffic data
If that report is correct the US is already deep in recession...unlikely