6 reasons why the USD doom and gloom is overdone
We have updated our USD’o’meter amidst widespread doom and gloom around the USD outlook. But is the outlook really that bad? Our logistic regression is not convinced of the death of the USD.
**** Find out about the USD’o’meter and how to use it in your allocation with a 14 day FREE Trial here → https://stenoresearch.com/watch-series/usdometer-six-reasons-why-the-usd-doom-and-gloom-is-overdone/
Use the code “crisis20” to get 20% off your first subscription. ****
We assess the USD outlook in a structured way in our regular USD’o’meter based on the following six parameters. In this piece, we will elaborate on each of the model parameters and ultimately sum it up in a logistic regression.
Technicals
ISM – IFO spreads (relative growth)
Positioning (% of open interest)
Relative rate hike expectations EUR – USD
Relative energy prices / Relative banking stress
Relative exposure to China
Overall, we find it interesting that the USD has not weakened MORE given the pamphlet of headwinds it has had to deal with in recent months – and statistically the tide is about to turn for the USD in our model framework. Position accordingly?
**** Find out about the USD’o’meter and how to use it in your allocation with a 14 day FREE Trial here → https://stenoresearch.com/watch-series/usdometer-six-reasons-why-the-usd-doom-and-gloom-is-overdone/
Use the code “crisis20” to get 20% off your first subscription. ****
Chart 1: Our logistic USD regression