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What happens in markets when the ISM Manufacturing index drops below 50 over the next quarter? We have looked across all assets with interesting findings.
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We have talked over and over about supply during the past 12 months, but it is now time to talk about demand. Go short the business cycle and buy USD.
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Is this a return to a 70s-like fight between inflation and recession? The energy supply scarcity is likely to bring about yuge business cycle volatility in coming years until the situation is settled.
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The current supply squeeze is one of the worst seen ever. The disconnect between demand fundamentals and food- and energy prices is simply eye-catching. Watch the downside, but not yet.
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Duration has been “killed” by financial markets over the past year, which carries repercussions for all asset classes. How can you track duration across…
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Inflation runs markets currently as it seems as if growth has become irrelevant for policy makers, but will such a narrative pass a reality test? I…
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Inflation is not going to peak in Q1 as the most recent price developments in energy- and food prices will lead inflation much higher in Q2. So, the…
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I remain of the view that it is inadvisable to make large portfolio changes during Geopolitical turbulence. Markets remain lukewarm despite the Russian…
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A lot of investors are rightfully scared that Russia is about to invade Ukraine. It almost never pays to bet on geopolitical turbulence and the current…
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The current inflation is mainly a result of lagged consequences of the pandemic trends, but as these trends are about to reverse, we may experience the…
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Everyone currently panic about high inflation and a weak labour supply, which has catapulted front-end pricing central banks higher. I would prefer to…
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This is Stenos Signals, a newsletter about (Bi)Weekly musings on macro- and market developments.
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Stenos Signals

Musings on macroeconomic- and geopolitical developments and how to trade them in financial markets.

Stenos Signals

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